"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times" - Charles Dickens
Over the past few years, income inequality within developed nations has come to the forefront of contemporary political and social debate. While the problems of inequality between individuals and groups of people have been frequently discussed, the increasing inequality between companies has not. Nowhere is the stark contrast of fortunes better exemplified than the US credit market.
The US economy has registered years of economic growth, credit index cash levels look flush, interest coverage ratios are manageable, and global investors insatiable demand for yield has provided adequate financing. Despite the natural resource driven spread widening, US credit index spreads have marched back to ultra-tight levels. Besides the lack of relative value, is macro level credit data hiding weakness?
The devil is always in the details...
1. US credit index cash levels are deceiving - the top 5% of companies hold around 1/3 of aggregate cash. Furthermore, these firms are some of the strongest credits, companies that scarcely have a use for a large cash pile - Apple, Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, and General Electrics of the world. Many have borrowed against these cash piles to fund share holder buybacks. In fact, some of the most relatively indebted companies have the least amount of cash cushion on their balance sheets!
2. Interest coverage ratios also deceiving - Low level of interest rates, a flat yield curve, and tight credit spreads drove stronger ICRs as firms both increased the maturity of their debt issuance and refinanced for lower rates. But a little less than half of US firms have interest coverage ratios below 2, 1/3 of US firms score a "distressed" rating by the Altman Z score, and 1/4 of US firms had interest costs exceed their EBIT in 2016. Debt relative to profits is at peak economic cycle levels, and debt to sales is at the highest level in 25 years - even when excluding the natural resource sectors! To bring it a global level - the IMF recently issued a report stating that $4Tn worth of global assets may be at risk if interest rates "rise materially from here."
3. Debt issuance has been utilized for share buybacks, dividends, and M&A - Without a resurgence in the earnings cycle, CFOs will be forced to choose between shareholder distributions and CapEx.
The story has been a select few of the strongest US firms have improving prospects, flush cash balances, and benign leverage metrics. These few "elite" firms have dragged the rest of the credit index with them. Passive investing is the tide that lifts all boats: hiding the weaker firms as mandated buy orders plow money into the credit index. A look into the retail sector shows this dynamic perfectly. A firm like Amazon sees its stock price hit new all-time highs, its consumer base grow, and credit spreads tighten, while the rest of the retail sector deals with low pricing power, over indebtedness, and decreasing sales. It may be a fools errand to predict when interest rates will break materially higher, but when it does the tide will recede, bringing the US credit index along with it. Is +125 bps over the 10 year treasury enough to compensate investors for this risk? Doubtful.
Over the past few years, income inequality within developed nations has come to the forefront of contemporary political and social debate. While the problems of inequality between individuals and groups of people have been frequently discussed, the increasing inequality between companies has not. Nowhere is the stark contrast of fortunes better exemplified than the US credit market.
The US economy has registered years of economic growth, credit index cash levels look flush, interest coverage ratios are manageable, and global investors insatiable demand for yield has provided adequate financing. Despite the natural resource driven spread widening, US credit index spreads have marched back to ultra-tight levels. Besides the lack of relative value, is macro level credit data hiding weakness?
The devil is always in the details...
1. US credit index cash levels are deceiving - the top 5% of companies hold around 1/3 of aggregate cash. Furthermore, these firms are some of the strongest credits, companies that scarcely have a use for a large cash pile - Apple, Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, and General Electrics of the world. Many have borrowed against these cash piles to fund share holder buybacks. In fact, some of the most relatively indebted companies have the least amount of cash cushion on their balance sheets!
2. Interest coverage ratios also deceiving - Low level of interest rates, a flat yield curve, and tight credit spreads drove stronger ICRs as firms both increased the maturity of their debt issuance and refinanced for lower rates. But a little less than half of US firms have interest coverage ratios below 2, 1/3 of US firms score a "distressed" rating by the Altman Z score, and 1/4 of US firms had interest costs exceed their EBIT in 2016. Debt relative to profits is at peak economic cycle levels, and debt to sales is at the highest level in 25 years - even when excluding the natural resource sectors! To bring it a global level - the IMF recently issued a report stating that $4Tn worth of global assets may be at risk if interest rates "rise materially from here."
3. Debt issuance has been utilized for share buybacks, dividends, and M&A - Without a resurgence in the earnings cycle, CFOs will be forced to choose between shareholder distributions and CapEx.
The story has been a select few of the strongest US firms have improving prospects, flush cash balances, and benign leverage metrics. These few "elite" firms have dragged the rest of the credit index with them. Passive investing is the tide that lifts all boats: hiding the weaker firms as mandated buy orders plow money into the credit index. A look into the retail sector shows this dynamic perfectly. A firm like Amazon sees its stock price hit new all-time highs, its consumer base grow, and credit spreads tighten, while the rest of the retail sector deals with low pricing power, over indebtedness, and decreasing sales. It may be a fools errand to predict when interest rates will break materially higher, but when it does the tide will recede, bringing the US credit index along with it. Is +125 bps over the 10 year treasury enough to compensate investors for this risk? Doubtful.
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